NOT SO JOYFUL OVER JEFFORDS
BY JULIANNE MALVEAUX
When Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords jumped the Republican ship, he
shifted the balance of power in Congress, placing the chairmanships and
decision-making power in the Senate into Democratic hands. Inside the
beltway, this is seismic news. Jobs, the pace of legislation, and range of
senatorial perks are at stake. But Democrats had better take a reality test
before they start counting their chickens.
The new Senate majority leader, Tom Daschle (D-SD) has excoriated the White
House about tax cuts, even after the Senate voted 58-33 to pass a the
10-year, $1.35 trillion package that gives huge breaks to the top 1 percent
of taxpayers. Twelve Democrats embraced the Bush package, and another 7
failed to vote at all. Had Democrats the same party discipline that
Republicans do (with only two defections and two non-voters), tax cut
legislation might have failed or been deadlocked. If Democratic Party
leadership really believes this tax cut is bad news, why did more than a
third of its troops fail to oppose the bill with “no” votes?
Can Daschle whip his party into shape? The Jeffords jump is an abject lesson
in the futility of strong-arm tactics. There are a couple of Democratic
Senators who might be tempted to creep into the Republican camp, which would
be a stunning turnabout from the Jeffords coup. Realistically, the Senate is
more likely to become more Democratic than less, but as long as it is so
closely divided every vote counts and every Senator needs to be courted.
Too, President Bush has gotten much of what he said he wanted from the Senate
before its shift. The passage of the large, wealthy-favoring tax cut package
is a pure victory for him. Sure, it’s backloaded, and legislators of
conscience may choose to reverse some of its measures before they go into
effect, since the marriage penalty doesn’t kick in until 2005, and the estate
tax isn’t fully eliminated until 2011. Still, Democrats went from opposing
the tax cut, to favoring something smaller, to giving Mr. Bush nearly 85
percent of the tax cut he asked for.
If the Senate does nothing more in the next eighteen months, Senate
Republicans can say they delivered a tax cut. What will Democrats be able to
claim? With Democrats now steering legislation, a minimum wage increase is
more likely, as is a thaw in our chilly relationship with the United Nations.
Bush’s indifference to some aspects of education may have been one reason
Jeffords jumped, so there is likely to be more money for education,
especially special education, and energy policy may look different that it
did just a week ago. Those corporations lined up at the trough for subsidies
and special interest legislation may walk away empty-handed. Or, we’ll end
up with business as usual.
How is the status quo possible with such a seismic shift in Senate power?
For some, the shift isn’t seismic at all. Committee chairmanships will sh
ift, but the same corporations that were buying Senators outright last week
will keep paying for legislation, cash in hand. And the same Democratic
moderates who supported the Bush tax cut will waffle over embracing a liberal
agenda, preferring a nebulous “bipartisanship” to strong decision-making.
Majority Leader Daschle articulates the issues well, but in the tax-cut he
was out of step with a third of his party. Such weak support will make it
difficult for Daschle to forge any bold or new Democratic initiatives.
If the Democrats can’t deliver anything after the Jeffords coup, it will be
hard for them to argue, in the 2002 elections, that they make enough of a
difference for people to consider switching parties or voting out incumbents.
Yet, little is likely to change. It will be easier for Democrats to block
Bush initiatives than to present initiatives of their own. And, like Bush,
party leaders will have to expend considerable effort keeping their coalition
together, or they’ll risk the same devastating defections that Republicans
just experienced.
In some ways, the Jeffords defection may be one of the best things that
happened to George W. Bush. It gives him the excuse he needs to stop pushing
his legislative agenda. He believes in a streamlined government, in any
case. A deadlocked Senate can make governance so streamlined as to be
ineffective. In taking control of the Senate, Democrats have been offered a
challenge. The next few months demonstrate whether Daschle and company is
equal to it. The tax cut vote shows that leading Democrats is more than a
notion. Instead of jumping for joy over the Jeffords defection, Senate
Democrats need to be jumping in line to show voters they can make a
difference.